What Lies Ahead for the USMCA? Luis Cantú Analyzes Emerging Positions from the U.S.

In the realm of international trade, the focus on China remains one of the most critical issues for the United States. Both Donald J. Trump, the Republican candidate, and Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, have made it clear that they intend to renegotiate the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in 2026. Luis Cantú, president of the Binational Council for Economic Promotion of Reynosa (Cobifer) and founding partner of LPS International Law Firm, presented an analysis on this stance, which reflects a strong concern about Chinese products entering the U.S. market through Mexico and positions Mexico in a crucial strategic role.

The USMCA, signed in 2020, is scheduled for review in 2026, as is customary for such treaties. However, both Trump and Harris have emphasized that they will not limit themselves to a superficial review. Trump has been particularly clear in announcing that his goal is to renegotiate the treaty entirely, while Harris has shown support for a similar strategy, though perhaps with a less aggressive approach.

Both candidates agree that specific chapters should be included in the renegotiation to impose tariffs on Chinese products using Mexico as an intermediary to enter the United States. This move is in response to growing concerns that many Chinese companies are shifting manufacturing processes to Mexico as a way to circumvent tariffs imposed by Washington in its trade war with Beijing.

The U.S.-China Trade War

Cantú shared that the trade war between the United States and China has escalated since Donald Trump initiated it during his first term, imposing tariffs of up to 100% on certain Chinese products, with plans to increase these tariffs to 200%. The goal of this strategy is to reduce what Washington perceives as unfair competition and an influx of Chinese goods into the U.S. market.

However, many of these products continue to enter the country through third parties, exploiting gaps in the trade system. Mexico, with preferential access to the U.S. under the USMCA, has been one of those key bridges for Chinese companies, which make minimal transformations to their products to meet origin requirements and thus avoid higher tariffs.

Mexico: Partners or a Springboard?

Trump's position is particularly straightforward: any Chinese product entering the U.S. through Mexico, regardless of the level of transformation it has undergone, will be subject to the same tariffs and restrictions as direct imports from China. Kamala Harris, though less aggressive in tone, has also expressed concern about such practices, stressing the need to protect U.S. commercial interests.

This approach is not new; since the trade war with China began, it was anticipated that Chinese products might enter the U.S. through indirect routes, including Mexico. This has placed Mexico in a delicate situation, as the country remains a strategic ally of the United States while also benefiting from Chinese investments that seek to take advantage of this preferential trade relationship.

For Luis Cantú, Mexico has a critical opportunity in 2026 when it sits at the negotiation table with the United States and Canada to defend its own interests. It is essential that Mexico sends its best negotiators, as the decisions made in this renegotiation could have a lasting impact on the Mexican economy.

Additional restrictions that could be imposed, especially in sectors such as manufacturing and automotive, may significantly affect Mexican exports. However, Mexico also has the right to defend its own interests and must be prepared to negotiate in areas that are strategic for its economic growth.

The Abuse of the “De Minimis” Program

Another key issue on the table is the abuse of the "De Minimis" program in the United States, which allows the entry of products valued below a certain threshold without paying tariffs or undergoing rigorous inspections. Originally designed to facilitate online shopping, this program has been exploited by companies to bring in large volumes of Chinese products without paying taxes.

This abuse has reached the point where illegal products, such as fentanyl, have been introduced through this scheme. Both Trump and Harris have indicated that eliminating or reforming this program is necessary to protect consumers and domestic industries. This change could impact Mexico, as many low-value products also enter the U.S. from Mexico under this program.

An Uncertain Future?

With the 2024 presidential elections approaching, the future of trade between China, Mexico, and the United States seems to depend on who occupies the White House. While the style and aggressiveness of Trump and Harris's trade policies may vary, both candidates share a common goal: to curb the entry of Chinese products, directly or indirectly, into the U.S. market.

What is certain is that Mexico will be at the center of this renegotiation. The decisions made in 2026 will affect not only the trade relations between the three countries but also the future of the global economy, as China seeks to maintain its influence and the United States tries to protect its commercial interests, Cantú concluded.