Mexican Manufacturing Sector Maintains Confidence and Stability in July

Despite ongoing global uncertainty, Mexico’s manufacturing industry continued to show signs of resilience in July 2025. The Business Confidence Index (ICE) for the manufacturing sector reached 49.4 points—a slight monthly increase of 0.2 points—bringing it closer to the 50-point expansion threshold.

While the index has remained below that line for five consecutive months, manufacturers maintain a positive outlook. The component measuring expectations for the company’s future stood at 56.6 points, while sentiment toward Mexico’s broader economic outlook reached 52.5 points—both firmly in optimistic territory.

Key Subindustries Signal Growth Potential

Sectors tied to global value chains are emerging as drivers of near-term optimism. In particular, the transport equipment and electronic equipment segments recorded annual increases in order volumes, suggesting momentum in export-driven activity.

In contrast, the chemical, metalworking, and food manufacturing industries continue to face sluggish demand both domestically and internationally, contributing to weaker performance.

Investors Remain Cautious, Yet Hopeful

The indicator assessing whether it's a good time to invest remained low at 38.2 points. However, manufacturers are still positioning themselves for recovery, placing greater confidence in the outlook for their individual businesses.

Downturn in Production and Exports Slows Overall Momentum

The Aggregate Trend Indicator (IAT) for manufacturing fell to 48.3 points in July, representing a sharp monthly decline of 3.2 points. This drop was primarily driven by a steep 9.9-point decrease in expected production and a 5.5-point fall in export expectations. Domestic demand and employment, however, held steady, softening the broader impact.

Meanwhile, the Manufacturing Orders Index (IPM) slipped back below the expansion threshold, closing at 49.8 points following a monthly decline of 0.9 points. The setback was mainly due to lower production expectations, although order volumes and employment remained on stable footing.