June Brings Positive Outlook for Mexican Manufacturing: INEGI Reports 0.3% Annual Growth

Mexico’s manufacturing industry grew 0.3% year-over-year in June 2025, according to INEGI’s IMOAM, signaling sector resilience and stability based on electricity consumption data.

Mexico’s manufacturing sector recorded a 0.3% year-over-year growth in June 2025, reaching 108.4 index points, according to the Monthly Timely Indicator of Manufacturing Activity (IMOAM) published by INEGI. The result reflects continued resilience in the face of broader economic challenges and signals stability across the country’s industrial landscape.

INEGI Estimates Confirm Moderate Sector Performance

The reported figure falls within a 95% confidence interval ranging from -2.5% to 3.2%, suggesting that despite some uncertainty, the estimate stands as a cautiously optimistic sign. IMOAM serves as a predictive tool that anticipates the performance of the Monthly Manufacturing Industrial Activity Indicator (IMAI) approximately 18 days ahead of its official release.

Energy-Based Forecasting Methodology

The IMOAM model assumes a proportional relationship between manufacturing output and electricity consumption, using administrative data from the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) and the National Center for Energy Control (CENACE). This methodology allows for earlier forecasting without waiting the nearly 40 days required for IMAI data publication.

Since its implementation in 2015, IMOAM has demonstrated high reliability. INEGI reports that in 90% of cases, the final IMAI figure has fallen within the model’s projected confidence range.

Reliable Economic Indicators for Informed Decision-Making

The publication of IMOAM is part of INEGI’s ongoing effort to deliver timely and relevant economic data to support informed decision-making across Mexico’s business and industrial communities. Sustained growth in the manufacturing sector remains a vital component in strengthening the country’s productive capacity.